I had an IM conversation with Lee the other night. Lee is a friend that I knew from MSU and during my time at UPLB. He's from South Korea (but don't ever refer to him as a South Korean) and I would think that he would have a great view of the situation. He says that things are pretty tense there but that the people are trying to get on like they always have. He described the stock market there as having collapsed. I found that funny since our markets have been running well since the news of the "test" broke.
Back when were in the Philippines, we had a couple conversations about North and South Korea and reunification. Many South Koreans would prefer not to change the status quo. To do so would be disastrous for them. If reunification was to take place, the South Koreans would have to spend their time and resources trying to rehabilitate the North Koreans. Such a situation would be vastly more difficult in comparison to the German reunification. The disparity between the two nations is too great and they don't want to deal with it. So that explains why South Korea, China, and Russia are reluctant to do anything to upset the North Koreans. They don't want to deal with the potential mess.
I've come up with a half-baked solution. The international community should tell China that it would be free and welcomed to take over North Korea. Let the Chinese come in and they can set up North Korea as a Special Administrative Region--or whatever they want to call it. The Red Army would still be able to
- North Korea would finally realize that United States is not going to attack them. Instead, the U.S. would be seen as willing to let other people go after the regime which is a far more unsettling thought
- South Korea might find the idea of China on the doorstep to Seoul so revolting they might actually get off their asses and do something to try and save their northern brethren.
- Russia can still sit on their hands and let the Chinese tackle their border issues.
- Despite their problems with the Chinese, the Japanese government, I'm sure would much rather see a stable North Korea in Chinese hands than an unstable one on the loose.
- The Americans can finally tell the world to, "shove it. If you don't like the way we do things than you do it." 'Cause we all really want to but are too proud to let it happen.
2 comments:
Intriguing idea but...here's my quick analysis of the situation:
What does China want? To continue it's economic boom, consolidate it's alliance with the former Russian states, and become a superpower. How does it plan to achieve this? Aviod getting involved in conflicts, and hope like hell the economy doesn't collapse into recession.
What does America want? To extend it's empire, and prevent China becoming a superpower. How? By controlling the world's oil supplies.
What does North Korea want? To make sure no other countries can invade or threaten them. How? By letting the world know (or at least think) that it has nuclear weapons. They seem too insular to be "on the loose".
What does South Korea want? I'm not sure. Probably just to be left alone and unthreatened - by North Korea, China, America or anyone else.
So, China won't occupy North Korea (though they could do so easily), because they don't want to handle the instability from supporting and reforming the disasterous North Korean economy, they don't want South Korea or anyone else to get nervous about them, and they don't want to give America (and Europe) reason to apply economic sanctions. Oh, and because North Korea now has nuclear weapons, and just might be mad enough to use them if invaded.
To extend its empire...by controlling the world's oil supplies
There's too much to respond with but let me just say, that I really think that you should avoid any political posts I do in the future because I don't want to write anything... unpleasant.
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