Can we slay the dragon?

There is an article that I found quite interesting. It is that the emergence of China as a superpower may occur faster than we have predicted. The estimates that I have heard placed China as surpassing the US somewhere around 2050. The article that I came across reported that there is widespread skepticism from our allies in East Asia that the U.S. could win a war with China. As much as it pains me to say, I agree with them.

The overwhelming assessment by Asian officials, diplomats and analysts is that the U.S. military simply cannot defeat China. It has been an assessment relayed to U.S. government officials over the past few months by countries such as Australia, Japan and South Korea.

There is no debate that the U.S. military has the best toys and well trained soldiers. But that is not enough to win a war. Although people would point to the Balkans and the first Gulf War as evidence that high tech/precision warfare can be successful, I don’t see it as convincing evidence. The military campaigns only went as far as to accomplish certain ends, and it is still debatable as to whether anything worthwhile came out of them. Face it the last real war that America fought was WWII and it won based on numbers. Were Americans better trained? No. Did the Americans technological superiority? No. (And those of you who point to the atom bomb… America did not get to the Japanese mainland with them.)

The thing is that any war with China would be regional. It would take place mainly in the Far East. It’s the reason why America wants so desperately to maintain their military presence in Japan and Korea. It’s hard enough on our military to fight a third rate country on their turf *cough*Iraq*cough*. How is it going to fight a country that is already nipping on its heels?

Relying on our technological supremacy will not win in a conflict with China. Unless the U.S. has a vast warehouse full of completed black projects, we don’t have enough stuff to overwhelm the enemy. As for the nuclear option, I don’t think that the U.S. is prepared to use them for the sake of whatever China may be after. The costs of using that option is too great as compared to what China would gain. When it comes down to the numbers game, there are simply more Chinese that will fight than Americans. It would take a snap change of mentality to have Americans willing to fight and die in a war. As it currently stands, generally, we are just a bunch of ambivalent citizens willing to let others go into the service and fight for things that we don’t really care about. So what if China wants Taiwan back? So what if they want back up their claim to the Spratlys? A war with China is requires too much costs for so little benefits.

Article here.